Nobody is waiting for an Apple Watch under their Christmas tree this year because it won’t be out anytime soon.
However, according to the business analysts at UBS, there are a whole lot of people with visions of the wearable device dancing in their heads like sugarplum fairies.
UBS surveyed 4,000 people, and fully 10 percent of respondents said they were “very likely” to buy a smartwatch next year. Based on the number of compatible iPhones in use, the UBS analysts estimated that Apple would sell 24 million units of the Apple Watch in 2015.
Will the Apple Watch One Day Replace the iPhone?
That is a massive number of sales which would transport the smartwatch from the fringe to the mainstream of consumer culture. UBS goes even further, arguing that the Apple Watch will replace the iPhone in about five years. Cellular and battery technology is not yet miniaturized enough to allow independent functioning, but it is coming.
UPS asserted that “given that about two-thirds of Apple’s profit is generated by the iPhone, the company has to be concerned about the longer-term threat of replacement technology, whether it be a leap in handset technology or loss of key functions to wearables. With a sophisticated user interface and third-party apps coming on, Apple may be readying for the time when the Apple Watch encroaches on the smartphone market.”
Plenty of Skeptics Remain
Still, there are lots of analysts who simply don’t believe the Apple Watch, or any smartwatch for that matter, offers enough utility to sell on such a massive scale. Count former Apple CEO John Scully as one of the skeptics. If there ever was a candidate for sour grapes, it will always be a former CEO of a massively successful company.
But in any case, Scully told Forbes Magazine that Apple doesn’t innovate enough, and that they need new products, but he’s “not convinced yet that the Apple Watch is one of those items. Maybe I’ll be wrong. But it isn’t clear to me that it’s as big a deal as an iPhone, or an iPad, or an iPod.”
However, Scully spoke high praises regarding Apple Pay, the new service which will allow iPhone and Apple Watch users to make retail transactions through their devices. Scully said “I think Apple Pay can be a fundamental creative leap. I’m very optimistic about Apple Pay. But realistically, even if you’re an optimist, it’s going to take several years to deploy that around the world. And no retailer wants to bet 100% of their future just on Apple.”
Apple Pay in Action
As for Apple Pay, the UI designers at the San Jose firm Impekable released a GIF demonstrating how Apple Watch could ease the experience of a customer at Starbucks by providing a better way to order, other than standing in a long line.
It’s a nice little piece of work, showing just how easy Apple Pay might make our daily transactions. This is surely a real plus for the Apple Watch, seeing as the device is already there on your wrist and accessible, as opposed to having to dig your iPhone out of your pocket and fumble for the controls.
There is, however, one little problem with this app concept. The fact is that at the moment, Starbucks doesn’t support Apple Pay. In fact, Starbucks is standing firm that it won’t dump its own loyalty card and mobile payment platform just to support Apple Pay on the Apple Watch.
If you take a look at the ease and clarity of the transaction in the GIF (above), one might wonder if not only Starbucks but other companies will be encouraged to sign up with Apple Pay on the Apple Watch. Especially if 24 million of them are going to be sold this year.