The question still remains: Is the Apple Watch going to be a hit?
Will there be a massive influx of customers buying one, like the iPhone, or will it turn into nothing more than an overhyped disaster like Apple TV?
Unfortunately, we still don’t know. Quite a bit of doubt hovers as to whether the Apple Watch is a device that people really need, and until that issue gets resolved, the jury will remain out to lunch.
Apple Watch Numbers are Good, Not Great, So Far
The early sales numbers suggest that the Apple Watch is doing well so far.
Industry analyst Ming-Chi Kuo estimated that global preorders have surpassed 2.3 million units, representing more than $1.5 billion, 85% of which is from the Apple Watch Sport model, followed by 15% for the Apple Watch (Basic) and less than 1% for the Apple Watch Edition.
This would mean that in just over one month, the Apple Watch has become by far the biggest-selling smartwatch on the market. In February, Pebble announced that it had sold over 1 million smartwatches since 2013, and it was reported earlier that about 720,000 Android Wear devices were sold in 2014.
Looks like a smash hit, right? Not so fast, my friend. Apple is a company that turns over $18 billion in just one quarter. From that perspective, $1.5 billion isn’t that impressive. In fact, it’s underperforming. Compared to iPhone sales, $1.5 billion over a three-month period is close to an absolute minimum level for the tech giant.
Here’s the strangest part of it all: The Apple Watch’s competitors, notably Pebble and Android, are hoping that Apple Watch sales go through the roof.
Why would they hope for such a giant competitor to succeed? Because a rising tide raises the resting level of all boats. If the Apple Watch is truly a success, it will legitimize the smartwatch as a must-have device, and all competitors will benefit from that.
On the other hand, if the Apple Watch flops the smartwatch is as dead as VHS. I’m sorry to tell you — even if you still have VHS tapes laying around and a player — the format has been dead for a while.
Analysts Continue To Predict Apple Watch Success
Other analysts paint a more optimistic picture.
A new report from IHS Inc. predicts that the smartwatch market will grow from a 3.6 million unit shipment in 2014, to 101 million shipments in 2020.
IHS analyst Antonious Maroulis said that “Apple Watch success will drive the overall smartwatch market. The smartwatch will become a key accessory device offered by most leading smartphone manufacturers seeking to dominate this new profitable market. We forecast the ratio of smartwatch shipments to smartphone shipments will increase from 1:500 to 1:20 between 2014 and 2020.”
His company predicts that Apple’s 2015 Apple Watch shipments will hit 19 million units, or 56 percent of the total smartwatch market. That seems impressive when you look at the numbers alone, but the bigger picture is what’s concerning.
Over time, IHS forecasts Apple’s share of the market will fall to 38 percent in 2020 as other smartwatch makers refine their products and successfully serve the vast Android smartphone market, which Apple chooses not to address.
Android Wear To Pair With iPhone?
Maybe Apple should consider integrating Android support or vice versa. The typical Android Wear smartwatches run about $200, or about $150 less than the cheapest Apple Watch. What if Android Wear watches could run on an iPhone platform? Wouldn’t the Apple Watch be in trouble then?
We may soon find out.
The Verge is reporting that Google is close to finishing the final technical details on a version of Android Wear that would allow them to be paired with an iPhone. In its current state of development, Android Wear works along with a companion app on the iPhone and supports basic functions like notifications. Like it does on Android, Android Wear also supports Google Now’s ambient information cards, voice search, and other voice actions on the iPhone. It should also support some more advanced features with Google’s own iOS apps, like replying to Gmail messages.
Can you imagine what consumers will do when they find out that Android Wear smartwatches are compatible with Apple’s smartphones? It will be a feeding frenzy, or at the least there will be a lot of competition in the space. Maybe we’ll even see Apple’s prices fall a bit?
The big question is whether Apple would allow such an app into its App Store. Many Google apps like Google Maps and Gmail are available in Apple’s store, even though they compete with some Apple products. But it wouldn’t surprise anyone if Apple adopted a more protective attitude about the Apple Watch, its biggest new product in years.
Apple’s App Store already has a policy for developers that restricts apps or metadata that simply mention the name of another mobile platform. Maybe Google could get around that by just not using the name “Android” on the app. Either way it’s an extraordinary business case, cheering for your competitor to succeed while undercutting them at the same time.
What about you? As an iPhone owner, would you consider going to an Android Wear smartwatch in order to save a couple hundred bucks?