April is just around the corner, which means technophiles and gadget freaks are getting pretty stoked about the Apple Watch finally hitting the market. Why shouldn’t they be? One way or another, the Apple Watch will be a game changer as the first entry into the wearable market by the world’s leading consumer tech manufacturer. We’ve said all along that the device’s functionality, especially the quality of its applications, will make or break its popularity.

Some of us here at Smartwatches.org have argued that perhaps the wisest approach may be to wait for Apple Watch Version 2 to be released, so that Apple can work the kinks out. We know there are kinks, they have been the cause of a lot of hand-wringing at Apple HQ for months. The biggest concern since the Apple Watch was announced was how long the battery life would last on a single charge. As it stands right now, it sounds like you will be lucky to get 24 hours out of a charge with moderate use of the device.

Moore’s Law Says The Apple Watch Version 2 Would Be Much Improved In a Couple Years

We believe that with the next generation of the Apple Watch Version 2, the Apple geeks could fix the battery problem once and for all. We know that the problem is one of usable space on a tiny device like a smartwatch. The Apple Watch needs to be stylish and slim, but it also needs room for the processing power to run the device and all the apps, as well as space for the battery. It’s a real juggling act.

Moore’s Law tells us that processing power doubles every 18 months. This means that in 18 months, Apple should theoretically be able to cram twice as much computing power into the same space of Apple Watch than it does now. Take a little less space for the CPU, and give a little more for the battery, and, voila, problem solved.

Some of us even had the temerity to hope that given extra processing power, Apple Watch Version 2 wouldn’t need to be paired with an iPhone anymore, and would operate as a standalone device.

Well here’s the problem with that line of thinking. Most industry experts are now in agreement that there will be no Version 2 of Apple Watch in two years time. In fact it may be considerably longer than that before Apple releases Apple Watch Version 2. And what kind of gadget freak can wait that long for a game changing device?

The Upgrade Cycle For The Apple Watch, Or Any Smartwatch, Hasn’t Been Established Yet

Up to now, Apple has banked on upgrades very successfully in its lineup of products. There are millions of consumers who willingly fork over hundreds of dollars every two years in order to own the latest iteration of the iPhone. The two-year upgrade cycle has pretty much become standard for smartphones, and Moore’s Law is undeniably a part of that.

Other products have longer upgrade cycles. Personal computers tend to get replaced every four or five years, and TVs tend to last, what, seven or eight or more? But the smartwatch is a different animal altogether. We simply don’t know how long its replacement cycle will be, but Michael Walkley, managing director of Canaccord Genuity, was quoted in the International Business Times saying his analysts firmly believe that it will be longer than two years.

Carolina Milanesi, chief of research for Kantar Worldpanel, told the same publication that the wide array of watchbands and accessories for the Apple Watch may act as a substitute for the upgrade impulse, suggesting that “consumers will be able to play the accessory game where you can see them buy different straps for different occasions — this will lengthen the replacement cycle potentially.”

Furthermore, the Apple Watch Edition model, which will come in rose gold and 18-karat gold models, is rumored to retail for as much as $5,000. If you are paying that kind of coin for a device, do you really want to spend it again for two years on an upgrade? On the other hand, people who can afford that price for one can usually afford that price for two. But either way, it sheds no light on when the Apple Watch Version 2  will eventually surface.

The Apple Watch Version 2 May Not Actually Arrive for Quite a While

If the next generation Apple Watch Version 2 is not going to arrive for, let’s say, three years, we can assume that Apple is making every possible effort to make the first version of the Apple Watch as good as it can possibly be. Knowing how much attention has been put on the problems with the battery, maybe we can even assume that Apple has been furtively pulling out all the stops to deliver better battery life. Who knows if it will be successful. Would you be willing to live with a first version of the Apple Watch for three years if it was less than perfect?